The sudden outbreak of new coronavirus has brought great impact on some fields of cultural industry.
From the perspective of the impact of the epidemic on cultural enterprises, it can be divided into three levels: the first level is the most serious level, mainly the offline gathering of cultural and entertainment consumption activities and cultural production activities, including film screening (producers and cinema lines), performance (performance enterprises and theatres), cultural and creative market and festival activities (cultural and creative product production and sales enterprises), film and television series shooting (film and television base, film and television production enterprises), variety program production, tourism performance and cultural and entertainment activities based on tourism, all kinds of offline entertainment enterprises (parks, shopping malls, shopping centers, theme parks and other places), etc.; the second layer is the more serious layer, mainly the traditional advertising and communication industry, public relations and marketing industry, as well as the stagnation or substantial stagnation of film and television, performance, cultural and entertainment activities The upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain affected by the reduction of degree, the traditional advertising and public relations industry are affected by the inability to carry out offline business, as well as the impact of the reduction of offline advertising. The upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, such as film and television performance festivals and festivals, include screenwriters, artist brokers, performance props, dance, lighting and sound, and other segments; the third layer has a smaller impact than Nu Skin News production and communication, radio and television, creative design, etc.
At the same time, the consumption of Internet culture and entertainment has ushered in a high popularity. Questmobile data shows that during the Spring Festival, in terms of Internet consumption time of Chinese netizens, the proportion of video and Games rose to 38%, and the proportion of news and information rose to 9%. New users of internet entertainment such as short video and live broadcast are increasing rapidly, while new online cultural and entertainment activities such as cloud exhibitions, cloud tourism, cloud concerts and cloud trampoline are emerging.
Some of the long-term trends in the cultural industry may accelerate under the epidemic situation, and some may become new long-term trends.
The epidemic will pass in the short term, and we should pay more attention to the possible long-term changes after passing through the short-term difficulties.
So, what are the trends and changes of cultural industry in the future?
Here are ten points for reference.
The cultural industry will accelerate the digitization, intelligence and virtualization, the development and application of 5g, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, big data, virtual reality and other digital technologies, the proportion of digital cultural industry will increase rapidly, and emerging formats will continue to emerge.
Since 2000, the cultural industry has started the process of digitalization and networking driven by the tide of Internet and mobile Internet. The Internet, 3G era and 4G era are two digital cycles, and the 5g era in 2020 is the third cycle.
In the epidemic, the prosperity of digital culture and entertainment activities and the emergence of new entertainment consumption patterns show that under the background of 5g technology is about to be popularized, the digital culture industry has greater development space, and the new cultural industry has more possibilities.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2019, 16 industries with obvious characteristics of new cultural formats accounted for 22.9% of the total cultural industry, 2.1 percentage points higher than the previous year. Among them, the business income growth rate of other Internet information services and wearable intelligent cultural equipment manufacturing exceeded 30%.
In 2020, the proportion of new cultural industries will be further increased, which is likely to reach 30%. According to the growth rate in 2019, it is likely to increase to 40-45% in 2025 and 50-55% in 2030.
At the same time, with the application of artificial intelligence technology and virtual reality technology in the digital culture industry expanding, the culture industry will be more intelligent and virtual, intelligent production and communication, virtual consumption and experience will become the trend.
The overall integration of cultural industry has accelerated, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises have disappeared, the market share has further concentrated on high-quality enterprises, and the development of cultural industry has shifted from factor input type to endogenous efficiency promotion type.
In the epidemic, a large number of small and medium-sized cultural enterprises are facing cash flow crisis. From 2018 to 2019, the cultural industry has been in the process of structural adjustment and optimization, with the industrial pattern reshaped and a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises closed. The epidemic intensified the adjustment and accelerated the adjustment.
It is expected that after 2020, the market share of movie theater line, performance, film and television production, short video and live MCN, advertising public relations, exhibition services, creative design and other industries or fields will be further concentrated, the survival of the fittest will accelerate, and the industry pattern will change greatly.
In this context, the growth of cultural enterprises depends more on the improvement of endogenous efficiency than on the acquisition of external resources.
The average staff size of content creation enterprises and cultural service enterprises is decreasing, and the tendency of professionals' free professionalization is becoming stronger and stronger. Digital management and online office will become the trend of enterprises.
A large number of small and medium-sized enterprises will take measures such as reducing rent cost and flexible employment to fight against future risks, while some professional work also shows increasingly strong externalities, and the desire of professionals in some fields to freely choose working time and environment is also growing.
This will lead to a decrease in the size of SMEs' personnel, a decrease in enterprises and an increase in the number of freelancers.
In fact, according to the National Bureau of statistics, the number of cultural service employees decreased by 2.98% in 2018. The overall trend shows that the long-term decrease of the average number of employees in an enterprise is a high probability event.
In this case, the use of online office and digital tools will become the norm, content creation and production will rely more on digital tools, and content creativity will continue to improve.